Morning Forex Trading (video) with Vance 5/18/16

May 18, 2016 in Forex Training, Fundamental Outlook, High Impact Data, Live Forex Show with Vance, Price Logic Analysis by Vance Williams

I share my take on fundamental sentiment, price movement, trading techniques, and take trades when they arise. Tues-Thur mornings. Follow on G+ to know when they will begin.

BIO
Vance Williams was a currency trader and trainer for 12 years. Seeing less than 1% of traders being successful, from 2004-2010, he focused on how traders develop the market and personal skills to win. In March of 2014 he retired from currency trading, but wrote a book “Forex Legacy” that captures his 11 years of experience teaching you how to master the market and master yourself. This book is free and can be downloaded at www.forexartofwar.com – no registration of any kind is required. He continues to donate his time Tue, Wed and Thur to help traders during this live session and a community of forums.

Fed Holds Rate, USD Weaker Across The Board

September 17, 2015 in Fundamental Outlook, High Impact Data, Pinned Posts by Jason Tong

High Impact Data & Key FX Fundamentals
Friday, 18 September 2015

  1. Fed holds off on interest rate hike: US Dollar drops across the board
  2. US equity rallies erased but may be back on the climb
  3. US bonds being bought back at incredible pace
  4. Precious metals rally off Fed disappointment

150918

EUR/USD: bullish limited, focus is shifting towards ECB pressures to ease/cut due to FOMC hold on rates/uncertainty
Fundamental sentiment: risk aversive, cautious positioning pullback waiting for EUR weakness / USD renewed strength
Seasonal factors: aftermath of unusual trading day, Friday (cautious market)
Global outlook: could become more uncertain given Fed concurring to recent global impacts
Technical bias: structurally bullish with room to correct higher, 1.152 at risk of breach but could hold due to ECB QE
Emotive story: period of uncertainty over Fed intentions (trust issues) waiting on info to revive medium term bearish story

Previous HID:

  1. EUR Final CPI y/y – did not meet expectations adding to easing bias
  2. EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment – no material impact though added weight to easing bias
  3. USD Core Retail Sales m/m – initial reaction USD negative, previous revisions bridge jobs disparity gap
  4. USD Core CPI m/m – inflation mandate did not support Fed expectations removing weight to Fed hike bias
  5. USD Building Permits, Unemployment Claims – no material affects though continue to support US jobs and housing sectors
  6. USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – no material affect though continues to weigh on US manufacturing implications
  7. USD FOMC Federal Funds Rate. Statement, Economic Projections – rate left unchanged, sparked position unwind
  8. USD FOMC Press Conference – dovish/hawkish/uncertain Fed, markets losing some confidence in USD

Forecast HID:

  1. NO EUR OR USD DATA

Futures:

  1. Net short bias increasing after 4 weeks of position unwinding
  2. Uncertainty in long positioning, investors holding onto long bets
  3. USD beginning to correlate but not enough conviction due to uncertainty

Focus:

  1. Speculative ECB easing bias in light of Euro zone growth slowdown (QE)
  2. Monetary policy divergence, broader global economy weakness vs. USD (data dependency)
  3. No longer about what the Fed can do to the world, but what the world can do to the Fed (short term, back to square 1)
  4. Fed rate hike timing, pace of normalisation, and Fed to remain hawkish (Dec) or any new info that may suggest Oct
  5. USD near term inflation variables (improvements/signs of growth/confidence) in line with Fed targets
  6. USD “further” improvement/consistency in labour market (wages) and correlation to consumption

Fears:

  1. US jobs vs. reduced Fed median dot forecasts raising risks of 2015 rate hike probabilities (slower tightening pace)
  2. Global and geopolitical uncertainty/growth/impacts that may affect Fed considerations for December (USD softness)
  3. International outlook that can continue to weigh on investor risk sentiment
  4. Overvalued Euro in contrast to risk aversive sentiment

GBP/USD: bullish pressure to continue as UK is now back in the race to raise rates first (neutralised to some extent/range bound)
Fundamental sentiment: near term bullish, may become speculative based on signs of strength/weakness
Seasonal factors: aftermath of unusual trading day, Friday (cautious market)
Global outlook: could become more uncertain given Fed concurring to recent global impacts
Technical bias: structurally bullish, trading in zone of key opposition, 1.566 at risk of breach but confined in topside range
Emotive story: period of uncertainty over Fed intentions (trust issues) waiting to gauge divergence between the GBP and USD

Previous HID:

  1. GBP CPI y/y – muted impacts due to USD focus and print meeting expectations (failed to add hawkish strength)
  2. GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y – strong labour market in support of BOE hawkish stance
  3. GBP Claimant Count Change – unemployment on track in line with BOE hawkish stance
  4. GBP Retail Sales – “stable” though not positive supports current outlook as data mainly muted due to FOMC
  5. GBP Inflation Report Hearings – positive outlook on inflation driving optimism in BOE hawks
  6. USD Core Retail Sales m/m – initial reaction USD negative, previous revisions bridge jobs disparity gap
  7. USD Core CPI m/m – inflation mandate did not support Fed expectations removing weight to Fed hike bias
  8. USD Building Permits, Unemployment Claims – no material affects though continue to support US jobs and housing sectors
  9. USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – no material affect though continues to weigh on US manufacturing implications
  10. USD FOMC Federal Funds Rate. Statement, Economic Projections – rate left unchanged, sparked position unwind
  11. USD FOMC Press Conference – dovish/hawkish/uncertain Fed, markets losing some confidence in USD

Forecast HID:

  1. 0705 GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks – may be relevant if fragile market receives new info in respect to rate race
  2. NO USD DATA

Futures:

  1. Net short bias increasing though strength is decreasing
  2. Long positions continue to cut though degree is waning
  3. USD adverse correlation where positioning suggests uncertainty

Focus:

  1. GBP wage growth and BOE hawkish rhetoric to remain consistent vs. rate race position against the Fed (data dependency)
  2. No longer about what the Fed can do to the world, but what the world can do to the Fed (short term, back to square 1)
  3. Fed rate hike timing, pace of normalisation, and Fed to remain hawkish (Dec) or any new info that may suggest Oct
  4. USD near term inflation variables (improvements/signs of growth/confidence) in line with Fed targets
  5. USD “further” improvement/consistency in labour market (wages) and correlation to consumption

Fears:

  1. Weak short term GBP inflation outlook pressures vs. Fed outlook
  2. US jobs vs. reduced Fed median dot forecasts raising risks of 2015 rate hike probabilities (slower tightening pace)
  3. Global and geopolitical uncertainty/growth/impacts that may affect Fed considerations for December (USD softness)
  4. International outlook that can continue to weigh on investor risk sentiment and Fed/BOE policy decisions

D-Day

September 16, 2015 in Fundamental Outlook, High Impact Data, Pinned Posts by Jason Tong

High Impact Data & Key FX Fundamentals
Thursday, 17 September 2015

  1. Dollar weakness finding support ahead of FOMC
  2. Commodity and equity markets making a comeback
  3. Bond markets stall as precious metals climb

150917

EUR/USD: neutralised trend, bullish bias
Fundamental sentiment: uncertain (risk aversive/range bound)
Seasonal factors: Unusual trading day, highly anticipated Fed decision
Global outlook: uncertain due to China and other geopolitical risks/impacts
Technical bias: structurally neutral, bullish advantage, wedged above former downtrend and within historic uptrend channels
Emotive story: short term bias at risk of changing, topside extremes valid based on Fed timing (2015 hike: hold, 2016 hike: breach)

Previous HID:

  1. EUR Final CPI y/y – did not meet expectations adding to easing bias
  2. USD Core CPI m/m – inflation mandate did not support Fed expectations removing weight to Fed hike bias
  3. EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment – no material impact though added weight to easing bias
  4. USD Core Retail Sales m/m – initial reaction USD negative, previous revisions bridge jobs disparity gap

Forecast HID:

  1. 0830 USD Building Permits, Unemployment Claims – may have some knee jerk reaction but mainly muted due to FOMC
  2. 1000 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – may have some knee jerk reaction but mainly muted due to FOMC
  3. 1400 USD FOMC Federal Funds Rate. Statement, Economic Projections – key event, rate hike forecast downgraded
  4. 1430 USD FOMC Press Conference – key event where markets will be looking for hawkish assurance/timing

Futures:

  1. Net short bias increasing after 4 weeks of position unwinding
  2. Uncertainty in long positioning, investors holding onto long bets
  3. USD beginning to correlate but not enough conviction due to uncertainty

Focus:

  1. Uncertainty of global impacts resulting from the timing of Fed rate hike
  2. Speculative ECB easing bias in light of Euro zone growth slowdown
  3. Timing of Fed lift off and pace of normalisation
  4. Expectations for the Fed to remain hawkish

Fears:

  1. USD inflation mandate moving against Fed expectations, affecting Fed decision
  2. Fed does not deliver on September rate hike: USD longs at risk
  3. Fear of Fed rate hike implications in current global conditions
  4. Impacts from global slowdown affecting Fed hike decision
  5. Overvalued Euro in contrast to risk aversive sentiment

GBP/USD: bullish trend pressure approaching key topside levels
Fundamental sentiment: uncertain (risk aversive/consolidative)
Seasonal factors: Unusual trading day, highly anticipated Fed decision
Global outlook: uncertain due to China and other geopolitical risks/impacts
Technical bias: structurally bullish, might not correct given reduced USD risk appetite, range/consolidation likely
Emotive story: short term bias at risk of changing, topside extremes valid based on Fed timing (2015 hike: hold, 2016 hike: breach)

Previous HID:

  1. GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y – strong labour market in support of BOE hawkish stance
  2. GBP Claimant Count Change – unemployment on track in line with BOE hawkish stance
  3. USD Core CPI m/m – inflation mandate did not support Fed expectations removing weight to Fed hike bias
  4. GBP CPI y/y – muted impacts due to USD focus and print meeting expectations (failed to add hawkish strength)
  5. USD Core Retail Sales m/m – initial reaction USD negative, previous revisions bridge jobs disparity gap

Forecast HID:

  1. 0430 GBP Retail Sales – relevant with significant impacts, stability required to maintain positive GBP outlook this week
  2. 0830 USD Building Permits, Unemployment Claims – may have some knee jerk reaction but mainly muted due to FOMC
  3. 1000 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – may have some knee jerk reaction but mainly muted due to FOMC
  4. 1400 USD FOMC Federal Funds Rate. Statement, Economic Projections – key event, rate hike forecast downgraded
  5. 1430 USD FOMC Press Conference – key event where markets will be looking for hawkish assurance/timing

Futures:

  1. Net short bias increasing though strength is decreasing
  2. Long positions continue to cut though degree is waning
  3. USD adverse correlation where positioning suggests uncertainty

Focus:

  1. GBP jobs market correlate to sustained growth and renewed BOE inflation hawkishness (sooner)
  2. Timing of Fed lift off and pace of normalisation in contrast to the BOE
  3. Expectations for the Fed to remain the leader in the rate race

Fears:

  1. USD inflation mandate moving against Fed expectations, affecting Fed decision
  2. Remaining GBP data this week does not correlate to BOE hawkish optimism
  3. Impacts from global slowdown affecting both Fed and BOE policy decisions
  4. Fed does not deliver on September rate hike: USD longs at risk
  5. Fear of Fed rate hike implications in current global conditions